Tongariro — Avalanche Forecast

1 loose-wet size 1 avalanche was reported on the northern aspect of Paretetaitonga (2700m) on 10/10/2026 by Whakapapa ski patrol. It ran for approximately 50m, 10m wide, failing down 10cm in the wet surface snow.                             In the next 24 hours, skies are forecast to become obscured throughout Saturday afternoon. On Sunday, it will possibly clear on the northern side of the national park by late morning above 2000m, and clear early morning on the southern side of the national park. Winds are forecast to increase to moderate/strong northerlies by lunchtime on Sunday. There is 5- 10 mm of rain expected to fall throughout Saturday night.The freezing level will lower from 3000m to 2600m early Sunday morning.  Slick, refrozen surface conditions will continue to exist on all aspects and elevations early in the morning on Sunday. As solar radiation softens the solar aspects, be cautious of southern aspects remaining frozen into the afternoon on Sunday. An ice axe and crampons are necessary tools for any backcountry users.

As we continue with warm spring conditions, the ongoing melt-freeze cycle continues, creating refrozen firm conditions in the morning and soft, slushy meltforms by midday on all aspects and elevations. This spring diurnal upper snowpack overlies a consolidated homogeneous mid and lower pack on all aspects and elevations. As the snow line rises, expect to see hazards developing, like waterfall holes as well as rock and icefall in the afternoons. Glide cracks have started to open up on all aspects and elevations; be cautious when approaching convex rolls, as these cracks can be extremely hazardous to fall into.